Paul Krugman blogs:
Some of the attempts to predict future trends argue that over time Hispanics will become politically “white”, the way Irish and Italians did. Maybe, although somehow that hasn’t happened yet to my tribe.
By the way, a story that has gotten very little attention is that Romney did quite a bit better than McCain in the Jewish vote -- approaching 50% better. That's still not very good (30% in Edison up from 21% in 2008, 34% in Reuters). The numbers are tiny, of course, but everything about trends in Jewish opinion ought to be of interest, for the Sarah Silverman Reason.
Off the top of my head, I'd hypothesize that Romney's number isn't a fluke -- that's about what the Republicans would usually get from Jewish voters if they always nominated a Northeastern moderate who only talks about tax rates. McCain's low number in 2008 reflects the Jewish crush of that era on Obama that contributed to and was the result of Obamamania.
The best evidence for this was New Yorker editor David Remnick's vast quasi-biography of Obama, The Bridge. Since Obama has done so little in his life that's interesting to read about, Remnick's book was padded out with potted Civil Rights Struggle history. The "bridge" of the title refers to some victory in the civil rights years in the South, even though Obama was not actually there. (Indeed, according to David Maraniss's boring but less infatuated biography, Obama was at that point being enrolled in an upscale pre-school in an expensive Honolulu suburb with a highly diverse class and a Japanese-American teacher.) Plus, Remnick tossed in endless reminiscences from elite friends, heavily Jewish, of how the first time they met Obama they knew that here was going to be the black President they'd always dreamed of.
Subtly, though, the bloom was off the rose of Obama in 2012. The media, with its credibility on the line for promoting Obama so uncritically, so shamelessly, hunkered down instead to attack Romney and divert attention from Obama.
But, it will be interesting to see if the media shields erected around Obama erode during the second term.